Pelemahan Rupiah Proses Restrukturisasi Ekonomi
New Policy – Under the New Policy, the weakening of the rupiah has emerged as a critical phase in Indonesia’s economic restructuring. This strategic shift, led by experts like Achmad Deni Daruri, President Director of the Center for Banking Crisis (CBC), signals a deliberate move to enhance the nation’s competitive edge. While public concerns about currency depreciation persist, Deni emphasizes that this phenomenon is not an indicator of economic fragility but a calculated step toward long-term resilience. The New Policy is designed to align the rupiah’s value with global market dynamics, ensuring that the currency’s decline serves as a catalyst for structural reforms rather than a crisis.
“Ini restrukturisasi, bukan pelemahan. Narasi yang sering muncul adalah pelemahan rupiah mencerminkan lemahnya ekonomi. Depresiasi rupiah justru harus dibaca sebagai restrukturisasi ekonomi menuju daya saing lebih tinggi,” ujarnya, Kamis (21/5/2026).
Deni highlights that the New Policy is informed by a global context where the U.S. dollar may face pressure if Kevin Wars, the newly appointed Governor of the Federal Reserve, follows Donald Trump’s directive to cut interest rates. This scenario could create a more favorable environment for the rupiah’s depreciation, which the New Policy aims to harness. By positioning the rupiah’s decline as a tool for structural transformation, the government is steering the economy toward a more balanced and sustainable growth trajectory. The New Policy also includes mechanisms to stabilize the currency post-depreciation, ensuring that the market remains confident in Indonesia’s economic direction.
Deni further elaborates that the New Policy is centered on strategic adjustments to the economy. He notes that the weakening of the rupiah can be leveraged to boost exports, strengthen domestic industries, and reduce reliance on imports. “Tugas pemerintah adalah memastikan pelemahan rupiah tidak sekadar menjadi gejolak pasar, melainkan momentum transformasi,” tambahnya. This approach aligns with the broader objectives of the New Policy, which seeks to modernize Indonesia’s economic framework through targeted interventions. By focusing on export competitiveness and industrial growth, the New Policy aims to address long-standing inefficiencies and create a more robust economic foundation.
Strategi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
With the New Policy in place, the government is actively reshaping economic growth strategies. In the first quarter of 2026, Indonesia’s GDP growth reached 5,61 percent, driven by government consumption and the hospitality sector. However, Deni warns that this growth is still vulnerable, as it heavily depends on short-term fiscal spending rather than sustainable investment. The New Policy proposes a shift from this reliance on government-led growth to a model that prioritizes private-sector participation and structural reforms. This transition is crucial for building a more resilient economy and avoiding the middle-income trap, a challenge many developing nations face.
“Transformasi struktural sejauh ini belum terlihat nyata. Jika tidak segera diarahkan, Indonesia berisiko terjebak dalam middle income trap atau jebakan negara berpendapatan menengah,” ujarnya.
Deni underscores that the New Policy’s success hinges on efficiently channeling fiscal resources. While government consumption surged by 21,81 percent, the high Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) suggests that current investments are not yielding optimal productivity. “Infrastruktur dibangun, tetapi output yang dihasilkan relatif kecil dibandingkan input. Artinya, belanja fiskal belum menghasilkan produktivitas jangka panjang,” jelasnya. To rectify this, the New Policy advocates for reallocating funds toward education, vocational training, and nutrition programs. These initiatives are expected to enhance human capital, which is vital for long-term economic competitiveness. Additionally, the hospitality sector’s 13,14 percent growth, fueled by tourism recovery and domestic demand, is a positive sign but requires further diversification to align with the New Policy’s goals.
Ketimpangan Regional dan Diversifikasi Energi
As part of the New Policy, attention is also given to regional disparities in economic development. Deni points out that Java still contributes 57,24 percent to the national GDP, leaving other regions at a disadvantage. “Ketimpangan ini berpotensi memperlebar jurang sosial-ekonomi dan memicu ketidakstabilan politik. Pertumbuhan yang tidak inklusif akan menjadi bom waktu pembangunan nasional,” imbuhnya. The New Policy seeks to address this imbalance by promoting equitable growth across all regions, ensuring that economic benefits are distributed more evenly. This focus on inclusivity is a cornerstone of the New Policy, aiming to foster nationwide development and stability.
Deni also highlights the importance of energy diversification under the New Policy. With global oil prices expected to remain elevated, the government must accelerate its shift toward domestic gas reserves and renewable energy sources. “Indonesia harus mempercepat diversifikasi energi dengan memanfaatkan gas domestik dan sumber daya terbarukan agar tidak terus bergantung pada impor minyak,” pungkasnya. This strategy is part of the New Policy’s broader vision to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and stabilize inflationary pressures. By integrating energy efficiency measures, the New Policy aims to create a more self-reliant and sustainable economic model.
Furthermore, the New Policy encourages innovation and productivity in key sectors. Deni suggests that the government should prioritize policies that foster technological advancement and improve labor efficiency. “The New Policy is not just about currency depreciation but about reengineering the economy to support high-value industries,” he adds. This involves strategic investments in technology, education, and infrastructure to ensure that Indonesia’s economic growth is both inclusive and impactful. By aligning with global trends and leveraging its competitive advantages, the New Policy positions the nation for a more dynamic and resilient future.